IMD’s winter prediction: Normal to above normal minimum temperature in most parts of India


New Delhi: As we enter the last month of the year, we can safely say winter is here. While the temperatures vary widely across different parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday (December 1) that the period between December 2021 and February 2022 is likely to witness normal to above normal minimum temperature over many parts of northwest India, most parts of south and northeast India and some areas along the foothills of the Himalayas.

Below normal minimum temperature is most likely over some parts of north-interior peninsula that comprises north Karnataka, parts of Telangana and Marathwada. In its seasonal outlook for winter temperatures, the IMD said that below normal maximum temperature is likely over most parts of the country except over some parts of northwest India and most parts of northeast India, where normal to above normal maximum temperature is most likely.

Stating that weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region currently, the IMD said its forecast models indicate that La Nina conditions are likely to strengthen and peak to moderate conditions during the upcoming winter season.

“At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean and the latest forecast indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the forecast period,” IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said.


The IMD has been using the latest Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) model for its forecasts this year. It assesses five global models and takes the best of them all.

(With IANS inputs)

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La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure and rainfall. It usually has the opposite effects on weather and climate as El Nino, which is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

“As the changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate, the IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins,” he said. Even the Polar Vortex influences India`s conditions and the ensemble models account for all such factors, he added.

Elaborating on a question about the winter temperature forecast, the IMD DG said, “What we are saying is an average of the whole country. It does not mean that the temperature in a given area cannot go below normal or above normal against what we have predicted.”




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