The rupee snapped its four-day winning streak on Friday, April 30, and settled on a flat note, two paise lower against the US dollar at 74.09 (provisional) amid losses in domestic equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic unit opened at 74.03 against the dollar and registered an intra-day high of 73.95. It witnessed a low of 74.12. In an early trade session, the local unit rose seven paise to 74 against the greenback. The rupee closed at 74.09 against the dollar, registering a fall of two paise over its previous close.
The rupee witnessed a winning streak for most days throughout the week, tracking positive domestic equities. On Thursday, April 29, the local unit closed at 74.07 against the dollar. On Wednesday, April 28, the rupee gained 30 paise to 74.36 against dollar. On Tuesday, April 27, the local unit edged higher by seven paise to 74.66 against the greenback. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, climbed 0.22 per cent to 90.80.
”Even this week, there has been a lot of chaos in the forex market. Traders were waiting for RBI to set the upper limit, which is 75.30-75.35, from where the USDINR spot reversed its uptrend. Due to the rising coronavirus cases in India the outlook for rupee still looks to be gloomy. But the weakness in dollar and Fed’s willingness to tolerate more inflation will keep the USDINR spot lower and we expect it to trade in between 74-75.50 next week,” said Mr. Rahul Gupta, Head Of Research- Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services.
”USDINR spot pair open at 74.18 against the Greenback open firm on the morning trade due to increase in US bond yield but overall Fed’s dovish stance on interest rates partially reversed the US losses of past 1 week, The currency pair depreciated as a result of the dollar index’s weakness and exporter selling above the 74.60 spot mark, reversing its two-week uptrend,” said Kshitij Purohit, Lead International & Commodities at CapitalVia Global Research Limited.
”We will opt for “Sell On Rise” strategy in this kind of market as trend line has been tested as a strong static resistance many times now. We are expecting prices to test immediate support in the range of 74.20-74.10 in upcoming sessions,” he added.
On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 983.58 points or 1.98 per cent lower at 48,782.36; while the broader NSE Nifty plunged 263.80 points or 1.77 per cent to 14,631.10.
”Today, the market has exhibited a lot of fear on the screen before the outcome of the Elections. The news flow related to the quarterly result of the index giant Reliance Industries and rising coronavirus cases. Except for Public Sector Units and Pharmaceuticals, we saw a vertical selling in other stocks and sectors. The Bank-Nifty got punished severely and closed below the psychological support level of 33000,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President (Equity Technical Research), Kotak Securities
”Although the market entered into a short term uptrend by crossing the level of 15000, we saw a weekly closing far away from the highest levels. It’s a hammer formation on a weekly basis that the market has formed and we would need to see whether it acts as a bullish continuation or bearish reversal in the coming week. We feel it should act as a bullish continuation formation,” he added.
According to exchange data, the foreign institutional investors were net buyers in the capital market as they purchased shares worth Rs 809.37 crore on April 29. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 1.21 per cent to $67.73 per barrel.